The time has come for another update on the Swing States, and it seems to be more of the same recent store (aka: Mitt Romney’s campaign is in trouble). I say that Governor Romney’s campaign is in trouble because even though the President’s numbers have risen some recently Mr. Romney’s have fallen even more… Of course there are different polls, but even the Fox News polls have been looking bleak for Governor Romney.
I found this one to be surprising because I’ve heard for a long time that Republicans have a voting block that is just more likely to vote no matter who the candidates are. I don’t know if this polling is somehow going against that
This might not be all that telling, but in real terms twice as many people said that they are less likely to vote for Romney because of his “candid camera” comments. I think that between that video, and what/how/when he said the things he said during the attacks on our embassies in the Middle East, he is in big trouble. I personally think that he has lost this election.
I think it’s pretty clear that the Presidential race is Obama’s to lose, and looking at some of the latest swing state polls it seems to only confirm much of the same.
Over the last couple of years I have personally thought that Colorado will actually become the next Iowa or Ohio in terms of swing state stature. It has places like Colorado Springs representing the far right and Boulder repeating the far left. I think that this state is one to pay attention to over the next few years and elections.
I don’t think I could vote for Paul Ryan, but unlike a lot of liberal’s talking points might suggest he is the real deal… What I mean by that is that he is incredibly aware of himself and potential voters, like Clinton and Reagan (and I’m not saying that he is in their league, but he possesses some of those some traits). I personally find him (in political terms) to be the most impressive Republican politician that I’ve seen in a long time… I wish that I agreed with him more so I could vote for him, but I am glad to see a formidable candidate, Sarah Palin really just hurt my confidence in the system…
On Meet The Press Chuck Todd showed an electoral map of the country and a few different scenarios.
This first map is of the states that seem to be done deals for either candidate.
What seemed to be the biggest theme of Chuck’s analysis was that Florida is incredibly important yet again. With the Medicare debate ramping up this could be a major factor of how the state swings. Obama has some room to catch up with the senior vote after the last election, but he doesn’t have to win them to win the election.
What seemed most telling about this segment was that while Florida is important for either candidate it seems more important for Romney (mostly just because he needs to catch up, and it controls a lot of electoral college votes). Chuck explained that if all of the states that seem to be rather certain one way or the other go the way that they’re expected to then Obama could win with simply picking up Florida and New Hampshire… That seems like pretty big news considering how big the Medicare debate is getting, and how many people in Florida rely on Medicare.
Of course we could see some election day surprises, but if things play out as Chuck Todd imagines we are looking at a slim path to victory for Governor Romney.
These polls are a mixed batch from: NBC News / The Wall Street Journal poll, and the Quinnipiac / New York Times / CBS News poll.
The simple message that I am getting from these images here in political terms is that while voters think we could be headed in the wrong direction they don’t seem to be placing the blame on the President entirely, as many people do and have done for a long time. Whether enough of them will feel this way come election time for him to win the election is yet to be seen, but it seems that from current polling he will be outside of the margin of error if these polls are accurate and the race were held today. This is of course my conclusion after comparing the last 2 slides with the first one in particular.
As for the swing states, Ohio and Florida are always in the talk, but the battleground state that seems to be the front line for battle is Wisconsin. Several up and coming Republicans are from there, of course including Paul Ryan (the Republican Vice-Presidential Candidate). And after the failed recall election of Scott Walker earlier this year there has been more and more talk about an upset.
These next 2 slides are disheartening for any American, but the only way to make a real change in these charts is to have grown up conversations about entitlement spending (and to me that includes Military spending) without throwing out a social safety net, failure to pass/balance budgets, and setting aside a lot of social policy issues for the sake of the country. These polls will probably have to go down before they go up, as it’s going to hurt to do the right things.
Swing states always seem so important, and I wonder if the Vice Presidential nominee will actually be picked according to swing state voting… We know that vice presidential nominees can be picked for purely political reasons (ie: Game Change/Sarah Palin), but what should we expect this time around?…