So at this point in regards to the popular vote there seems to be 2 options:
1. The race is virtually tied.
2. Gallup knows something that nobody else seems to know.
Gallup is a very highly regarded polling agency, and their polling usually isn’t such an outlier.
No matter the state of the popular vote we are dealing with an electoral college that is more likely than note to re-elect President Obama. How do we know? Polls. Of course they aren’t flawless, but they tend to be great predictors, especially this close to the actual vote. So let’s start with some likely voter polls.
National polling seems to be telling an almost universal story about being tied, but of course we’ll have to wait for the real popular vote tally to really know. One of the ways we can pretend to know now though is breaking down segments of the electorate, and we’re going to do that a little bit now.
And of course the gender differential between likely voters.
Now, those were all fun of course, but the real meat and potatoes at this point is the swing states, especially Ohio! So here’s a little more of a breakdown into where this election will really be decided.
There has even been talk that the campaigns have started putting resources back into Michigan because its closer than expected, and maybe “swingable” to a Republican victory (but I think it’s highly unlikely).
Last but not least, I am not a big fan of Karl Rove, but the man knows politics… On Sunday he was on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace and he broke down the state of the election with some common knowledge charts, and I do love him for that (I love charts). I do think he is part of the problem with our political system (aka: what he did to John McCain in the primaries against Bush, just google it…), but I’m glad to have anything complicated dumbed down for me, so enjoy these final charts.
The Map By State Voting Density
And this picture could actually be important if we run into a tie 269-269 electorate (actually possible…), because in that case the House of Representatives votes on who will be President, and each state gets one vote… The crazy person in me would love to see how this shook up, but the compassionate/pragmatic person within is terrified of this… Not just because the Republicans in the House would be deciding the next President, but with all of the gridlock I think we might have an even less functional government, and less trust in anything it does if this were to happen…
This above graph was on the website for the show Real Time with Bill Maher, but it was taken from Slate.Com. I saw this on the blog for Real Time, and I think that this is pretty interesting, as I’ve been asking this question about what we should cut of my conservative friends, and only sometimes do I get full answers beyond being very upset with welfare.
Not wanting to cut Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, or Defense seems to show a lack of understanding in spending. Although, younger Republicans that I speak with seem to be fine with cutting all of these, except maybe Defense spending. Older Republicans who I speak with however don’t seem to want to make any cuts in any of these things, and they are the absolute most expensive items on our budget. We continue to be more and more polarized, and in my opinion that is partially attributed to us having a very disorganized conversation, where many of us are having entirely different conversations. Do we want to talk about welfare? Ok, that’s fine, but that is not getting at the main drivers of our debt, unless if you are confusing Medicare and Defense for welfare (and I’m sure there are plenty of people who truly believe that they are). Of course I’m merely sharing my experiences, and polling could be useful in breaking down the parties and their demographics beliefs as well. But I just can’t understand what exactly the cuts that many of my Republican friends have in mind are (not to say that I don’t support spending cuts, I do).
These are the latest polls about the parties’ popularities. It shows that the Democratic party is slightly ahead of the Republican Party in popularity. Also, I don’t like say GOP, it just sounds elitist and misguided to me… If your opponents call you the “Grand Ole Party” that means something, but not when you call yourself that… Am I wrong? I don’t know, maybe, but I just find it indicative of where the party is heading in this increasingly diverse world, and there lack of room for that diversity…
I didn’t mean to start ranting, but like when the tea party first got rolling and gay people showed up supporting fiscal conservatism, and they were chided and abused… That happened repeatedly, and it was supposed to be a group of people who were simply wanting to talk economics. Oh, and yes, even though the Republican party is fracturing I still consider the Tea Party to be a fragment of that party, but simply because they’ve behaved that way.
It just a matter of time before they party resurfaces with a younger more tolerant leadership, and we’ll see them take over again like they did in the 90’s and in 2010. Until then though I think we’ll just see these numbers and their role dwindle.