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Tag: Polls

Gallup Poll: The Largest Problems Facing America

This is really a sad story. Having the people’s government fail them, and then to have them feel hopeless against it seems to reflect a broken democratic society in my opinion. And just turning this into an opportunity to complain that there is a government is about as counterproductive as anything else that we can take away or do from here…

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The Weapon of “Popular Opinion”, and Why Those of Faith Might Want to Reconsider Marriage Equality (Re-Post)

Somehow I deleted this post, and I was very disappointed because it had gotten lot of traffic and inspired some great conversations for me, but  I decided to do my best to just repost it, as this is still how I feel…

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This message is to my friends who are members of “the/a” church. Today the supreme court is ruling on Proposition 8, which outlawed same-sex marriage (as it was legal in California for a short time). Proposition 8 was controversial for multiple reasons, but a big part of why it was controversial was that churches (the mormon church in particular) poured in millions of dollars in a campaign for proposition 8 (to ban gay marriage). As this ruling is happening I would like to challenge my friends of a church, or any religious community, to think about the implications of saying no to same-sex marriage.

Proposition 8 was voted on by the people, hence “Popular Opinion” would allow or deny citizen’s rights, and the “body of Christ” / members of the church communities have been leading the charge in that popular opinion legislating process. Here is the potential problem with that – Christianity, and religion in general is becoming less and less popular, and those who are against it are becoming louder and more strategic… Do you see the connection? If the church is saying that popular opinion should legislate citizen’s rights there is a hazard for the church upon the horizon as they are losing their favor in the public perception battle.

This is not a threat, as I’ve spent much of my life in Christian organizations, and I’m hoping that the church will grow and only become a better version of itself. I’m really just asking the question, will approaching issues like same-sex marriage with the weapon of popular opinion (which since Prop 8 was passed has completely flipped) a very good idea when that weapon will likely soon be used against you/the church? I’m not saying that you have to be ok with people being gay, you don’t (no one can make you), but as far as the law is concerned are you sure that you want to actively restrict the rights of others because of your own opinions/taste? Just something to think about.

I will just leave you with this chart:

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Polling Update: Presidential Approval, Congressional Republicans (as of 3/19/13)

This polls, like most things, tell a mixed story full of nuance. It starts with President Obama having more people disapprove of his job performance than the number that approve. However, the Republican Party as a whole is still seeing much gloomier polling numbers than the President. But even further still as the Republican Party tends to be the more anti-government party seeing so much disconcerting polling of government approval will inadvertently have have benefits for their movement, well this has been my suspicion for several years now.

Lastly though, I think that Joe Scarborough made a great point on his show this morning about congressional polls when he said that people overall disapprove of congress in vast swaths, but people tend to highly approve of their congressperson. That is a little disappointing to me, but it is just how this seems to work. This is complicated, partially because people don’t always know enough.

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Polls by Party and the Issues (February 2013)

Polls are not always litmus tests for truth and reality, but in a democratic-republic they are important. Figuring out what is important about these polls is not only important, it’s lucrative.

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Fiscal Cliff Blame Game Polling, and Historical Tax Rates vs Economic Prosperity

Public opinion is often not the most accurate predictor of truth or fairness in my opinion (see civil rights), however public opinion matters in a democracy. I first want to show a chart that I came across which tells a story that people seem to not recognize in a public consciousness. Over the last century the highest tax rate has change significantly many times, but the actual marginal rate that the people categorized as members of those highest tax brackets haven’t necessarily changed quite so much, mostly due to loopholes in the tax code. This chart however tells a story of the economy in relation to those high end tax rates changing, and I’m posting it to say that speaking of higher taxes doesn’t kill the economy as it is said to, but there is undoubtably a threshold, and we must approach this conversation with an understanding of nuance.

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With this chart out of the way, and the debate over taxes still raging let’s examine public opinion of who people seem to hold most responsible.

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So, it seems that in political terms that the President has an upper hand right now, but the before they start to do some kind of victory dance we should also note that people still seem to believe that they won’t make a deal…

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I share, to a degree, some level of skepticism over whether or not they’ll pass a deal (even if that means after January 1st), but I tend to believe that we are witnessing theatrics. I think that as our nation is so polarized the people expect a fight, and anyone not seeming to put up a fight risks losing support from their base. I might be overly naive, but I really hope this is the case…

-Grady

The Polls vs Intrade Going Into Election Day

I’ve posted a lot of polls, but it looks like these will be the last for this election cycle.

These are all states to watch, but the one that I keep hearing people make a big deal about is Pennsylvania. Partially due to voter laws and regulations, but if PA goes red (doubtful, as usual…) we’ll probably be talking about President Romney on Wednesday, but maybe not.

So we have several different Polls, but also I’m adding some charts from Intrade. Intrade is basically the Vegas style betting platform for politics, and believe it or not it is almost always the most accurate predictor… These charts were posted by my main man Steve Rattner on Morning Joe:

And now for some polls

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Chump Change: How Do American Voters Vote For Change in 2012?

We Still Want Change, But How Do We Get It?

4 years ago then Senator Barack Obama was elected on a platform of Change. A new poll shows that many voters are still waiting for the change they voted for… Having just experienced an incredible economic disaster we have to ask whether or not that change was possible while also making sure “the house didn’t burn down” (or at least this is what he’s running on). But there are still lingering questions of whether or not President Obama has been the President of change that he said he was, and if not whether of not he would be in the next term. These questions are apparently rather important to voters because they are still looking to cast a “change” vote. The funny part about that is that this vote still might be cast for the incumbent (President Obama), as 2/3’s of the people polled have consistently said that they blame the economy on former President Bush, not President Obama. I have some mixed feelings, but overall I find that he matches that framework better than his challenger, Mitt Romney, who is being castigated as a believer in the Bush style of government. I tend to agree that he would be a step backwards, but I say this understanding that I’ve got a thing or 2 to learn yet. What do you think?

 

The President has some very wavering opinions to face in this re-election campaign. He is, according to polls, the more likable candidate, but whether or not he is seen as a serious executive is still being aggressively debated. Judging from this most recent opinion polling maybe the best way to win the election is to be the one to emerge from the fray with the message of Change, again. And if the President is re-elected let’s hope that he isn’t faced with such pressing problems, and such an impossible congress to work with… What say you?

 

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And now, for some Approval numbers:

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“Will who wins the Presidency make a great deal of difference in your life personally?”

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This shows just how polarized we are, as over half of the voters believe that it will make a great deal of difference in their life personally who wins, and among those voters the vote is tied as for who deserves their vote… I don’t know that they are right about the administrations making that big of a difference in their lives, unless of course if they love blogging about politics as much as I do, but I think it says something about people not having given up on their vote counting for something…

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I’d love to have some feedback. What do you think about these polls?

The Election Breakdown By “The Issues”

So as much as I love to talk about swing states I think that breaking down the election by “issues” is very important, because they can be barometers for why people vote as they do, which is kind of the whole point of voting (having purpose and reasons). So here we go, these polls are from Politico & George Washington University:

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State of the Race 9-14: Morning Joe

I think it’s pretty clear that the Presidential race is Obama’s to lose, and looking at some of the latest swing state polls it seems to only confirm much of the same.

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Over the last couple of years I have personally thought that Colorado will actually become the next Iowa or Ohio in terms of swing state stature. It has places like Colorado Springs representing the far right and Boulder repeating the far left. I think that this state is one to pay attention to over the next few years and elections.

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President Obama’s Approval Ratings Hit 50%, and Fundraising

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For the first time in several months President Obama has out raised Governor Romney (albeit by a little). This fundraising shift was measured from the month of August, which doesn’t include any potential change in support for either side due to the parties conventions.

Moreover, It seems rather fair to say that in the court of public opinion that the Democratic Convention went better than the Republican Convention (regardless of the reality that little was said in real terms at either convention, and that’s not to say that Republicans would necessarily agree with this).

The big story here though is that the president’s approval rating has gone over 50%, and he is looking very strong in swing states (Ohio in particular).

People love to talk about swing voters playing a big role in elections, but I actually think that we’re about to run into an election cycle where the turnout of the steady voter will matter most, especially with the President leading (will his supporters make that lead count for something?).

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