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Tag: Ohio

Ohio Romney Rally – Interviews with Supporters (and Meatloaf)

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I have watched a lot of the New Left Media videos at large events, which ranges from early Tea Party rallies to the Wisconsin recall election rallies with liberals. I think Chase Whiteside does a good job at getting people to express themselves. What do you think about this video? Do you think he is selectively interviewing people, and cherry picking the ones that won’t bode well for conservatives? I am not sure, but I will say that a lot if the things that these people are saying are the things that you’ll hear from the people on stage at these events.

Ohio Is A Test Case For The U.S. Economy – Steve Rattner

Ohio is a test case for US economy.

If you read my blog with any regularity you by know are aware that I love Steve Rattner… He is a very smart, and also thoughtful person. I think that he nailed with pinpoint accuracy what citizens of this country should have an understand of, so that we can learn how to face common obstacles together.

At the end of this post I am post a video that is a few years old that I think pertains to what he is talking about… The apparent leakage of our nations power is attributed to so much, and identifying the importance of education is but one way that we can maintain growth and influence in the world (which is obviously of great importance to anyone who considers our nation to be founded on outstanding ideals).

Ohio is a test case for US economy

Likely Voters and Swing State Polling

So at this point in regards to the popular vote there seems to be 2 options:
1. The race is virtually tied.
2. Gallup knows something that nobody else seems to know.

Gallup is a very highly regarded polling agency, and their polling usually isn’t such an outlier.

No matter the state of the popular vote we are dealing with an electoral college that is more likely than note to re-elect President Obama. How do we know? Polls. Of course they aren’t flawless, but they tend to be great predictors, especially this close to the actual vote. So let’s start with some likely voter polls.

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National polling seems to be telling an almost universal story about being tied, but of course we’ll have to wait for the real popular vote tally to really know. One of the ways we can pretend to know now though is breaking down segments of the electorate, and we’re going to do that a little bit now.

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And of course the gender differential between likely voters.

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Now, those were all fun of course, but the real meat and potatoes at this point is the swing states, especially Ohio! So here’s a little more of a breakdown into where this election will really be decided.

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There has even been talk that the campaigns have started putting resources back into Michigan because its closer than expected, and maybe “swingable” to a Republican victory (but I think it’s highly unlikely).

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Last but not least, I am not a big fan of Karl Rove, but the man knows politics… On Sunday he was on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace and he broke down the state of the election with some common knowledge charts, and I do love him for that (I love charts). I do think he is part of the problem with our political system (aka: what he did to John McCain in the primaries against Bush, just google it…), but I’m glad to have anything complicated dumbed down for me, so enjoy these final charts.

The Map By State Voting Density

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(In 2008 my home state of Oklahoma had the largest margin towards the GOP, and I’m glad to see that the Mormon vote in Utah and Idaho is going to be making us look at bit more moderate…)

And this picture could actually be important if we run into a tie 269-269 electorate (actually possible…), because in that case the House of Representatives votes on who will be President, and each state gets one vote… The crazy person in me would love to see how this shook up, but the compassionate/pragmatic person within is terrified of this… Not just because the Republicans in the House would be deciding the next President, but with all of the gridlock I think we might have an even less functional government, and less trust in anything it does if this were to happen…

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Romney’s Latest Auto Claims Are Absurd – Steve Rattner (aka: the Car Czar)

Romney’s latest auto claims are absurd.

If you don’t have much time, or patience, I would recommend skipping my comments (they are blog comments…) and go ahead and read the article below, which was written by the Car Czar for the auto bailout on Romney’s comments as of late about the auto industry.

Steve Rattner is one of my political and economic heroes… I think that he has a very clear vision of what it means to be pragmatic and plain-spoken in our complex world of politics and business. I often speak to my conservative friends to pay close attention, but that is mostly because of where I’m from. Being from Oklahoma, and living in Arkansas makes it more likely that the uninformed commentator is conservative – the opposite would be true if I were from another part of the country (something that the show “Portlandia” takes a comical approach towards addressing). It’s all about perspective really, we speak in such scathing and polarizing terms about people who promote policies that aren’t so different from our own. In this article Mr. Rattner is calling to the reader’s attention the importance of understanding simple and verifiable facts as they stand… It does not mean that he thinks that Governor Romney is all bad, and the opposite from himself. In fact, I’ve heard Mr. Rattner on multiple occasions praise Governor Romney for being a pioneer on Wall Street. The criticism found in this article is only partially ideological, but more so it is a referendum on the former Governor/CEO/Bishop/etc.’s lack of deference to the truth… It is not a coincidence that these attacks are mostly being made in Ohio, as he desperately needs a November surprise in the state with probably the most organized auto labor collective that there is…

The counter response that I have been hearing when I try to discuss Governor Romney’s multiple aggressions upon reality is that the President lies to, so it’s a push… Well, it’s not… When I ask for examples, or when I hear examples on TV they all seem to be about how the President promised lower unemployment (5.something percent), however that isn’t really the same kind of lie… Being overly optimistic and missing the mark on how much his actions would affect the economy is not the same as blatantly lying about what has or has not happened. It’s just not the same thing. It’s fine to ask questions about whether or not the President implemented appropriate policies, and there is Plenty of room for that debate, but that does not mean that he is a liar in the same way that Romney was… What do you think? Surely I’m wrong about something here, and I’d love some feedback, so feel free to let me know what you think.

Grady

 

Romney’s latest auto claims are absurd

Ohio – What Is the State of the State That Will Decide The Election?

This morning on Morning Joe they discussed the likelihood that the President will win in Ohio, mostly due to his campaign’s roots they’ve planted there over the last 5 years, and their impressive ground game there. The also discussed a few other states, but Nevada in particular. These 2 states are very important in the hopes of the President getting reelected, and 1 great connection was made on the show as to why they will probably go the President’s way – they are probably the 2 states with the most organized labor unions. Also, those labor unions in Ohio are probably Very heavily in favor of President Obama considering the auto bailout and the car industry in Ohio. Governor Romney has definitely made up some room in Ohio, but it looks at this point like it probably won’t be enough, and Ohio will almost surely predict the outcome of the election, baring some very surprising upsets in other swing states.

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Nevada would be a big get or either candidate. The help that the unions in Nevada are giving President Obama seem to be providing a safe cushion. If he were to lose Nevada it might be pretty costly in the end…

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On Morning Joe they were discussing the likelihood of this being the final election map, and the possibility of having a 269 to 269 tie (even though it would be quite unlikely), and the possibility of Governor Romney winning the popular vote while President Obama wins the electoral college – and they discussed how this country needs an election without contest because of the toxicity of our political polarization, and how that effects our people.

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New Presidential Swing State Polls

We probably talk about these polls too much, but these races matter… So here we go.


Swing State Polls as of First Debate

So it’s the day of the First presidential debate of 2012. Morning Joe did some analysis of the holes today in swing states. It sounds like Ohio is a lost cause for Mitt Romney, but maybe we can make history and win the presidency without it. I don’t think that’s likely… But we will just have to see.

The three poles that they seem to find most notable were in: Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

Republicans do not win the Presidency without winning Ohio… But everything that isn’t is a rule, until of course that rule is broken.

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They also discussed Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada:

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It seems obvious to me that the 2 states to consider on this list are Ohio and Florida. However, the states not on this list that probably need the most consideration are: Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Midwest is becoming the new South in Republican politics, and therefore Presidential politics. But we’ll see if they can get a real stronghold over the next few years. I’m getting ahead of myself, let’s just get ready for this debate tonight.

Update On Swing States 9-21

The time has come for another update on the Swing States, and it seems to be more of the same recent store (aka: Mitt Romney’s campaign is in trouble). I say that Governor Romney’s campaign is in trouble because even though the President’s numbers have risen some recently Mr. Romney’s have fallen even more… Of course there are different polls, but even the Fox News polls have been looking bleak for Governor Romney.

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I found this one to be surprising because I’ve heard for a long time that Republicans have a voting block that is just more likely to vote no matter who the candidates are. I don’t know if this polling is somehow going against that
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This might not be all that telling, but in real terms twice as many people said that they are less likely to vote for Romney because of his “candid camera” comments. I think that between that video, and what/how/when he said the things he said during the attacks on our embassies in the Middle East, he is in big trouble. I personally think that he has lost this election.
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This map might just tell it all…
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State of the Race 9-14: Morning Joe

I think it’s pretty clear that the Presidential race is Obama’s to lose, and looking at some of the latest swing state polls it seems to only confirm much of the same.

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Over the last couple of years I have personally thought that Colorado will actually become the next Iowa or Ohio in terms of swing state stature. It has places like Colorado Springs representing the far right and Boulder repeating the far left. I think that this state is one to pay attention to over the next few years and elections.

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President Obama’s Approval Ratings Hit 50%, and Fundraising

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For the first time in several months President Obama has out raised Governor Romney (albeit by a little). This fundraising shift was measured from the month of August, which doesn’t include any potential change in support for either side due to the parties conventions.

Moreover, It seems rather fair to say that in the court of public opinion that the Democratic Convention went better than the Republican Convention (regardless of the reality that little was said in real terms at either convention, and that’s not to say that Republicans would necessarily agree with this).

The big story here though is that the president’s approval rating has gone over 50%, and he is looking very strong in swing states (Ohio in particular).

People love to talk about swing voters playing a big role in elections, but I actually think that we’re about to run into an election cycle where the turnout of the steady voter will matter most, especially with the President leading (will his supporters make that lead count for something?).

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