The Road to 270: Just How Important Is Florida? Very…

by gradycarter

On Meet The Press Chuck Todd showed an electoral map of the country and a few different scenarios.

This first map is of the states that seem to be done deals for either candidate.

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What seemed to be the biggest theme of Chuck’s analysis was that Florida is incredibly important yet again. With the Medicare debate ramping up this could be a major factor of how the state swings. Obama has some room to catch up with the senior vote after the last election, but he doesn’t have to win them to win the election.

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What seemed most telling about this segment was that while Florida is important for either candidate it seems more important for Romney (mostly just because he needs to catch up, and it controls a lot of electoral college votes). Chuck explained that if all of the states that seem to be rather certain one way or the other go the way that they’re expected to then Obama could win with simply picking up Florida and New Hampshire… That seems like pretty big news considering how big the Medicare debate is getting, and how many people in Florida rely on Medicare.

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Chuck actually even drew up a scenario where Romney would win Florida, Iowa and Ohio and still lose the election.

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Of course we could see some election day surprises, but if things play out as Chuck Todd imagines we are looking at a slim path to victory for Governor Romney.