To my conservative friends I ask, Why is this not compelling to you?
I will first start by saying that I am still undecided about the upcoming election.
Why this is not compelling to me I will give you two reasons.
Number one, the video claims that taxes will only be raised for “millionaires” ,but according to the plan that I pulled off Obama’s website says that families over 250,000 dollars would be paying more than they do now. 250,000 does not equal 1,000,000. The quote is bellow.
“To make sure everyone plays by the same rules and pays their fair share, he has called for Congress to pass the Buffett Rule, while limiting the deductions available to the highest-income earners and repealing the Bush tax cuts for families over $250,000. The President’s plan levels the playing field for businesses and eliminates unfair loopholes that let corporations dodge their taxes or that encourage them to ship jobs overseas.
Also, to prove my point I went to the buffet rule and you tax calculator that calculates new rates of taxes under the proposed plan. The calculator will not function if i put in an income of 250,000 dollars or more as a family or 200,000 dollars as a single. Why not if it only effects millionaires?
In further reference to the tax plan. The 250,000 dollar mark was set under the Clinton administration’s tax plans (which were enacted). If I take 250,000 dollars of 1992 dollars and commute the value to current dollars I get 369,875.86 dollars (see source bellow). So why has the dollar amount not been adjusted for inflation.
Issue number two I have with the video is the claim that 4.6 million jobs have been created. Sure jobs have been recovered in the economy. Did the President do that or public economic policy? Most likely not. In a downturn in the economy jobs are shed to allow firms to remain competitive in the market. As higher unemployment causes a decrease in the demand for goods necessitating a decrease in supply to form a new equilibrium price. As there has been an upswing in the markets of late jobs have been regained in US labor markets. It is argued by some, mainly the chicago school of economics, that government interventions in the economy hamper its ability to allow for real growth in the economy. Where, increased levels of public spending to “create jobs” create unsustainable bubbles of employment that firms cannot maintain without government support. Non government action in the long run should cause we run firms to restructure and become more efficient creating a strong foundation from which to expand there by allowing for sustainable growth, which would create more jobs.
Not to mention the fact that we currently are still at 8.1% unemployment. So if we lost 4.4 million jobs and added 4.6 million jobs, how do we get the current unemployment rate?
Also it is important to note that the economy needs to add 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with the rise in labor demand due to new workers entering the market. Meaning that 350,000 jobs would needed to be added per month to reach full employment (5% unemployment) in 3 years.
Another thing, what is the big gripe about cutting taxes for corporations? If I decrease a company’s administrative costs, would it not stand to reason that the freed up capital would be invested, and that investment would create more jobs?
I am not sold on either candidate yet. But this video does not convince me that Obama is the right path. I can use statistics to support pretty much any view that I want. I know because I am taking stats in grad school right now.
Absolutely wonderful response. I have asked that same question about the millionaire vs 250kaire, and I agree that we need an adjusted tax bracket that has means to change dollar value with the effects of currency smoothing and the price of just being alive. I think that it’s pretty frustrating about the political process, their is a market place for public opinion (elections), and it’s more lucrative to deceive the public. I think that Obama had been dishonest, but I think Romney has been even more dishonest, not to mention the basics of his ideology is less in line with what I’d like to see.
I think that Obama’s administration being on the clock as the debt has risen so much is really scary, but it’s hard for him to prove that the bailouts have all been worth it since we don’t know what would’ve been. I don’t know if they will be said to have worked 20 years from now, but I do think that some examples of Keynesian economics have worked. I would say that the NRA and CCC helped during the depression, but part of our problem in my opinion is that the cost of living has outgrown the wages, and that makes Keynesian economics riskier and less profitable.
I don’t know exactly what he should’ve done coming in, but I expected more regulation on nonsensically risky behaviors in the ‘financial industry’, and I have been repulsed by the way the congressional Republicans have treated him. I think that a lot of good stuff could’ve been accomplished on a bipartisan level (and I realize the comically drastic views of both sides about economics), but I think a lot of people could’ve been ready to take some action to make a more stable market.
What would you have done if you we’re elected when he was? I think I could follow along with most things that he’s done, but I have my doubts. The thing about believing in Keynesian Economics is that a lot of the investment that is done in society is long term investment. The best example would be education. There are better ways to approach it, and we need a serious conversation, without people saying, “you take care of yours, and I’ll take care of mine”, at least not with education.
There could be better options than Obama, but I really don’t think Romney is one of them. But you’re right, that ad isn’t entirely fair, but alas, politics…
Very nice response to my response Grady,
I totally agree with you about the repulsive way that congressional republicans treated obama early in office, just as I thought the way congressional democrats treated Bush in his second term. Both sides have killed bipartisanship. Right now we need to come together to attack our problems. Think the Bush sr. and Clinton administrations’ deficit reduction packages. Those worked pretty darn well in my opinion.
The thing about economic policy is that we can’t “prove” an economic theory. We can only confirm its effectiveness or disconfirm its effectiveness through historical examples. Do I think that Keynesian Economic policies are effective? Well sure why not, I think some of the New Deal policies worked, maybe not in terms of pulling us out of the depression, but certainly more people received jobs from the programs. The thing is that it is difficult for a government to be seen as doing nothing during an economic downturn, which is what the Chicago School would have them do. I also agree that it is one of the government’s roles to invest in education as more competent and effective workers are important to maintain our edge in the world
As for the different views on economic policy on each side, two things drive me absolutely crazy. Number one, the Republican Party has undergone a fundamental change in their economic beliefs. This goes back to the rise of the Newt Gingrich “no new taxes ever” Republicans and the waning influence of the fiscal conservative Bob Dole Republicans in the 90’s. A true fiscal conservative will agree that taxes will have to be raised, although how they are raised and who the effect is up for debate, and spending will have to be cut to balance the budget. There has never been a deficit reduction package that didn’t include both of those things. I am in this camp.
Number two, Democrats seem to me to believe that they can run things just as efficiently if not more efficiently than the private sector. This absolutely baffles me as I have yet to find one public institution that is running in the black.
I dont want an expanded government. I think that it is too big already. For instance we have the US Department of Commerce, a separate US Trade and Development Agency, and US Aid and Development agency. Those could be rolled up into one. The problem with that is we would have to cut back on public employment, which we will have to do anyway to do deficit reduction.
As for what I would have done if I were president, well no one would want me to be president because I would have allowed phoenix type protocols to handle the financial crisis, for which my depression era grandparents would have slapped me for. Meaning I would have let inefficient unprofitable firms fail to allow for the rise of more efficient profitable firms in the future. Heal the wound not band aide it, healing the wound takes longer, but allows for healthy growth in the future instead of necessitating replacing the band aide. In my economic opinion it would have been better to let the banks who would have collapsed collapse. Not to pity investment bankers, but their industry has been really hard hit, and they make a lot of money for the economy (as a business) that they invest in other businesses.
I am aware that my economic action plan above, while it might be better for the economy in the long run, is not politically feasible. Alas, politics and band aides
One of my real gripes with Obama is actually with his west wing. I have never seen a west wing that is so vindictive in its maneuverings against people who dont line up with them.
I hear you on letting investment banks sink or swim, I think by bailing them out and always letting them rewrite their own rules about their invisible product has really made it all too confusing as to whether or not we approve of certain practices. Real reform would’ve been necessary with bailing then out, and I’m not confident that happened (although some people seem to think so).
You should look at the picture that my friend Andy Cox just posted on my wall. It’s supposedly from the Moody’s rating agency online affiliate. It’s about the return on the money spent by our government.
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