Rattner’s Charts – Morning Joe: July Jobs Report and Impact on the Upcoming Election
I really loved this segment with Steve Rattner on Morning Joe. People are constantly trying to breakdown the Presidential race, but I think that his analysis here is the best that I know of. He explains in this segment some of the different factors that have been compared to re-election campaigns for Presidents, and which ones seem to be more indicative of a re-election succeeding or failing. Here are the charts and why they are/aren’t significant according to Steve:
- Job Growth & Election Outcome – positive for Obama, but only mildly a good predictor of a re-election.
- Unemployment Rate & Election Outcome – The most overrated, and most common predictor discussed, but not very positive for Obama.
- GDP Growth & Election Outcome – has been 1.5% for Obama in the second quarter. This is a rather accurate predictor (explains about 60% of the former re-election attempts) and it rather positive for the President.
- Income Growth & Election Outcome – *Likely the most important chart, 80% accurate in past election (10 of last 13 winners), this is Obama’s weakest chart, and could be very telling if he is not to be re-elected.
While I recommend staring at these charts I first recommend clicking on the link above to watch the clip where he explains them. He also shoots down the exaggeration about the recent jobs report for July. Enjoy, and please, do watch the clip, if you clicked on this link you won’t regret clicking that one…
If you’d like to see his charts on his website just Click Here