Why Unemployment Won’t Be A Big Hurdle For Obama
For generations one of the most commonly believed “truths” about Presidential Elections has been the level of unemployment (being a measure of people who are looking for work and can’t find it) had an inverse relationship to the likelihood of whether or not the president residing in office (or the candidate from that President’s party) would be (re)elected. While I think that this is still true there is a level of ambiguity that comes with this number due to the people who would be the most likely to change their vote according to this number (meaning someone who has significantly been affected by the rate of unemployment on a personal level) will probably still vote for President Obama. We are talking about minority voters, and female voters. Minorities have much higher rates of unemployment than caucasians, and women (as pointed out by Mitt Romney) have experienced a much higher rate of unemployment than men. While these people have probably experienced this same level of employment disparity during other presidential re-elections this is the first time that they could vote for somebody who didn’t seem to be cut from the same stone – and in a lot of ways President Obama can be criticized for not breaking any molds, but in some very symbolic ways he is different. We will see if his race, demeanor, background, and likeability will be unique enough to get him re-elected, but as of right now it is merely speculation as this will be an election incomparable to any in our 236 year history. Some might be offended by discussion about whether or not something like his race will get him re-elected, but the likely reality of the situation is that it will matter to a lot of voters. And by bringing it up I’m sure that there will be people who have flashbacks to hearing the radio interviews from 2008 with people in Harlem who proved their ignorance when not seeming to recognize that Obama wasn’t running with Sarah Palin as the interviewer asked, an thus showing that they were just voting for Obama because he was black and not due to any serious political calculation. To those of you who know exactly what I’m talking about I want to say that tho would prefer to have a debate about voter ignorance at a later time, this post is more about people trying to make separations in their options, and Obama is still way more relatable and seemingly different. This is of course just my opinion from all that I’ve observed from my very normal life, but I just think that the unemployment rate will not matter in this campaign as much as it normally would – and to what degree things will be different I’m not sure, but President Obama will still seem like a change candidate (especially if Mitt Romney continues to run a campaign that resembles something so ideologically close to President Bush II). What do you think: will Unemployment affect this presidential election like it has all previous elections where the president has been trying to get re-elected? Or will people be voting by likeability/the still seemingly less usual?